Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of April 4 - April 10, 2026

# Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of April 4 - April 10, 2026 Welcome to your weekly dairy industry briefing! The biggest headline this week came from Washington: USDA's April WASDE raised 2026 milk production to 235.3 billion pounds, the largest single-month upward revision in recent memory. Meanwhile, February export data confirmed a record-smashing month for U.S. cheese shipments, the Iran ceasefire brought cautious relief to dairy supply chains, and a new HPAI genotype showed up in Nevada. Here are the top stories from April 4 through April 10. --- ## 1. This Week From Therio If you missed it, Therio co-founder Greg Cochara's field guide on dairy cow identity fragmentation continues to circulate across industry channels. [Dairy Cows Are Having an Identity Crisis!](/news/dairy-cows-are-having-an-identity-crisis) walks through how a single cow can accumulate 18 or more separate identifiers across farm software, breed registries, genomic labs, and government systems, and why that costs farmers real time and money. Give it a read if data reconciliation is eating into your weekends. --- ## Industry News ## 2. USDA April WASDE Raises 2026 Milk Production Forecast to 235.3 Billion Pounds The USDA released its April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on April 9, raising the 2026 milk production forecast by 600 million pounds to 235.3 billion pounds. If realized, that would put 2026 production up approximately 1.5% from 2025's estimated 231.7 billion pounds. The revision was driven by increases to the dairy cow inventory, which more than offset slower growth in milk output per cow. **April 2026 WASDE dairy forecasts:** | Metric | April Forecast | Change from March | |--------|---------------|-------------------| | 2026 milk production | 235.3 billion lbs | +600 million lbs | | All-milk price | $19.70/cwt | +$0.75 | | Class III price | $16.65/cwt | Unchanged | | Class IV price | $17.15/cwt | +$1.45 | | Cheddar cheese | $1.615/lb | +$0.01 | | Butter | $1.870/lb | +$0.19 | | Nonfat dry milk | $1.390/lb | +$0.075 | | Dry whey | $0.660/lb | -$0.03 | The all-milk price forecast climbed $0.75 to $19.70/cwt. Class IV posted the largest gain at +$1.45, reflecting continued strength in the powder market. Butter's forecast jumped 19 cents, the single largest product-level revision. **Why it matters:** The 600 million pound upward revision is the largest single-month jump since USDA started building its 2026 forecast in December 2025. It signals that the herd expansion that began in mid-2025 is accelerating. With 9.57 million dairy cows projected on average for 2026, the industry is running its biggest herd since the early 1990s. The question is whether demand, both domestic and export, can absorb the additional milk. ## 3. February Cheese Exports Smash All-Time Monthly Record USDEC and USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data published this week confirmed that U.S. cheese exports hit an all-time monthly record of 58,406 metric tons (128.5 million pounds) in February 2026, up 30% from February 2025. The previous monthly record of 121.1 million pounds, set in October 2025, was eclipsed by 6%. **February 2026 U.S. dairy export highlights:** | Product | February 2026 | YoY Change | |---------|--------------|------------| | Cheese | 128.5 million lbs (58,406 MT) | +30% | | Butter | 22.3 million lbs | +93% | | NDM/SMP | 115.4 million lbs | +8% | | Dry whey | 47.3 million lbs | +36% | | Yogurt | 9.8 million lbs | +73% | | Total export value | $803.9 million | +11% | Cheese exports have now topped 100 million pounds for 12 consecutive months. USDEC noted that February's volume would have exceeded 60,000 metric tons if the month had 30 days. Fresh cheese volumes to Mexico nearly tripled, and total cheese shipments to Mexico were up 38%. Butterfat exports to the Middle East/North Africa region surged seven-fold from February 2025. **Why it matters:** The 30% year-over-year cheese export growth is remarkable, but it comes with a caveat. USDEC warned that March data will likely reflect supply chain disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and strong 2025 comparables beginning in June will make sustained double-digit growth harder. The export boom has been a critical pressure valve for a growing U.S. milk supply, and any disruption to that channel would reverberate through domestic pricing. ## 4. Iran Ceasefire Reopens Strait of Hormuz Under Military Coordination Iran agreed on April 8 to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of the world's oil and 30% of global fertilizer had passed daily before the conflict. Ships will transit only under Iranian military coordination, providing cautious relief for dairy supply chains that had been disrupted since the strait's closure. **Dairy supply chain impacts from the Hormuz closure:** | Impact Area | Detail | |-------------|--------| | Container ships stranded | ~130 vessels (1.5% of global fleet) | | Global container volumes frozen | ~3% | | Freight rates (Asia-U.S.) | +30 to 50% | | War-risk insurance premiums | 3x to 4x increase | | Fertilizer price risk | +25 to 45% if conflict persists 3 months | | U.S. butter exports | Canceled orders, pricing pressure | The dairy impact extends beyond direct trade disruption. The Gulf region accounts for 30 to 35% of global urea exports and 20 to 30% of ammonia exports. Fertilizer supply constraints flow directly into feed costs, which represent the largest expense on most dairy farms. Analyst Dmitry Baranov forecast a 25 to 45% rise in fertilizer prices if the conflict lasts three months, and up to 90% if prolonged. **Why it matters:** The ceasefire is a positive signal, but the conditional reopening under military coordination is not the same as normal commercial traffic. Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM had all suspended Gulf operations, and resuming full service will take weeks. For dairy specifically, the Middle East is a significant and growing market. February's 7x increase in butterfat exports to MENA was one of the brightest spots in the trade data, and the question is whether that channel can remain open. Feed cost inflation from fertilizer disruptions is the other shoe that has not fully dropped yet. ## 5. HPAI D1.1 Genotype Detected in Nevada Dairy Cattle USDA APHIS confirmed that the H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype D1.1 has been detected in dairy cattle in Nevada, marking the first time this genotype has been found in dairy herds. All previous dairy cattle detections had been genotype B3.13. D1.1 is the predominant genotype currently circulating in North American wild bird flyways and has been found in wild birds, mammals, and domestic poultry. Concerning mutations have also been identified. A PB2 D701N mutation was found in some D1.1 sequences from dairy cattle, and a PB2 E627K mutation was identified in B3.13. Both mutations improve replication efficiency in mammalian cells, though no person-to-person transmission has been documented. **HPAI in dairy cattle: current status:** | Metric | Status | |--------|--------| | States with confirmed dairy cattle cases | 19 | | California dairies infected (total) | 766 | | California dairies recovered | 630 | | New genotype in dairy | D1.1 (Nevada, first detection) | | Human cases (dairy workers) | 41 | | Person-to-person transmission | None documented | USDA's National Milk Testing Strategy continues with monthly bulk tank sampling at the farm level. Pasteurization remains effective at inactivating H5N1, and no infectious virus has been detected in retail dairy products. **Why it matters:** The appearance of a new genotype in dairy cattle is significant because D1.1 is the strain dominating wild bird populations right now, and spring migration season is in full swing. This means the pathway for new introductions into dairy herds is widening. Farms in the Upper Midwest, where the virus has been quietly impacting production curves, should be paying close attention to biosecurity protocols. The mutations are concerning from a surveillance perspective, even though there is no evidence of human-to-human spread. ## 6. Dairy Cow Culling Surges 20,300 Head Year-Over-Year in February USDA Livestock Slaughter data showed that 237,300 dairy cows were marketed through U.S. slaughter plants in February 2026, up 20,300 head from February 2025. The entire year-over-year increase in the first two months of 2026 occurred in February, reflecting ongoing pressure from lower milk prices that began declining last summer. **Regional culling patterns:** | Region | January Slaughter | Key States | |--------|------------------|------------| | Upper Midwest | 59,500 head | IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, WI | | Southwest | 49,400 head | AZ, CA, HI, NV | | Mid-Atlantic | 33,400 head | | | Southern Plains | 32,200 head | | | Pacific Northwest | 30,100 head | | Despite the culling increase, the U.S. dairy herd continues to grow. February cow numbers were estimated at 9.615 million head, up 211,000 from a year earlier. Cull cow prices remain in record territory at approximately $167/cwt in the Southern Plains. **Why it matters:** The herd is growing and culling is increasing simultaneously, which is unusual. It suggests that while new heifers are entering the herd at an elevated pace, lower milk prices are pushing marginal producers and older, lower-producing cows out faster. The Upper Midwest and Southern Plains accounted for roughly two-thirds of the culling increase. Industry analysts expect the year-over-year culling gap to widen through June, since 2025's March through June slaughter was unusually low. ## 7. Corey Geiger Named World Dairy Expo 2026 Industry Person of the Year World Dairy Expo announced its 2026 Recognition Award recipients this week, naming Corey Geiger of Omro, Wisconsin as the 2026 Industry Person of the Year. Geiger currently serves as Lead Dairy Economist at CoBank and co-owns his family's sixth-generation Wisconsin dairy farm. Geiger spent nearly 30 years at Hoard's Dairyman, including 14 as managing editor, before moving to CoBank, where his research and commentary on milk pricing, heifer inventories, and dairy economics have influenced producers, processors, and policymakers. He is widely recognized for his analysis of the "800,000-head heifer gap" that preceded the current herd expansion. Other 2026 Recognition Award recipients include Dairy Producers of the Year Jonathan and Alicia Lamb, Matthew and Kendra Lamb, and Jim Veazey and Janette Veazey-Post of Oakfield Corners Dairy in Oakfield, New York, and International Person of the Year Robert Chicoine of Semex/CIAQ in Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec. Honorees will be celebrated at the Recognition Awards Banquet on September 29 during World Dairy Expo in Madison, Wisconsin. **Why it matters:** Geiger's selection reflects the growing importance of economic analysis in dairy decision-making. His work connecting farm-level economics to global trade flows and Federal Order pricing has helped producers make sense of an increasingly complex market environment. It is a well-deserved honor for someone who has spent his career bridging the gap between the parlor and the spreadsheet. ## Market Snapshot | Indicator | This Week | Prior Week | Change | |-----------|-----------|------------|--------| | CME Cheddar Blocks | $1.6800/lb | $1.6725/lb | +$0.0075 | | CME Cheddar Barrels | $1.5975/lb | $1.5925/lb | +$0.005 | | CME Butter | $1.8100/lb | $1.7900/lb | +$0.02 | | CME NFDM | $1.9850/lb | $1.9725/lb | +$0.0125 | | CME Dry Whey | $0.6800/lb | $0.6875/lb | -$0.0075 | | Class III (Mar actual) | $16.16/cwt | - | - | | Class IV (Mar actual) | $18.94/cwt | - | - | | All-Milk (WASDE forecast) | $19.70/cwt | $18.95/cwt | +$0.75 | | GDT Price Index (Event 401) | +1.1% | - | Steady gains | | DMC Margin (Feb) | $8.46/cwt | $7.81/cwt (Jan) | +$0.65 | | Corn (WASDE forecast) | $4.15/bu | $4.10/bu | +$0.05 | | Soybean Meal (WASDE forecast) | $10.30/bu | $10.20/bu | +$0.10 | --- *This roundup is compiled from publicly available USDA reports, industry publications, and news sources. For the latest market data, visit the [USDA Dairy Market News portal](https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy). For questions or tips on stories we should cover, reach out to our team at hello@therio.ai.*