Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of February 21 - February 27, 2026

# Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of February 21 - February 27, 2026 Welcome to your weekly dairy industry briefing! This week marked a critical deadline for dairy producers as DMC enrollment closed on February 26, USDA raised its 2026 milk production forecast, investment surged back into precision-fermented dairy, and the export pipeline started 2026 on strong footing. Meanwhile, Lifeway Foods debuted a new high-protein kefir product targeting the functional dairy space. Here are the top stories from February 21 through February 27. **In This Issue:** - **From Therio:** One Cow, Five Identities: The Missing Primitive - **DMC Enrollment Deadline** passes with enhanced coverage options - **USDA Raises 2026 Milk Production Forecast** to 234.5 billion pounds - **Precision Fermentation Investment** surges back into dairy proteins - **Lifeway Launches Muscle Mates** with 20g protein kefir - **U.S. Dairy Exports** start 2026 strong with 82 NEXT contracts - **Retail Dairy Prices** for the week ending February 20 - **Bird Flu Update:** stabilizing across 18 states - **Market Snapshot** and **Looking Ahead** --- ## From Therio This Week We published a new long-form piece this week: *One Cow, Five Identities: The Missing Primitive*, written by co-founders Logan Snyder and Greg Cochara. The article explores why identity is the inflection point for animal agriculture, examining how a single cow can have five different digital identifiers across five disconnected systems, and why that fragmentation creates real costs for farmers, vendors, and regulators alike. It makes the case for a persistent, permissioned digital passport as the connective tissue beneath the existing technology stack. *Read the full article:* [One Cow, Five Identities: The Missing Primitive](/news/one-cow-five-identities-the-missing-primitive) --- ## Other Industry News ## 1. DMC Enrollment Deadline Passes with Enhanced Coverage The February 26 deadline for the USDA Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program has come and gone. For the 2026 program year, producers had access to several meaningful improvements under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed July 4, 2025. **Key 2026 DMC changes:** | Feature | 2025 Program | 2026 Program | |---------|-------------|-------------| | Tier 1 Coverage Cap | 5 million lbs | 6 million lbs | | Lock-in Option | None | 6-year lock-in (2026-2031) | | Lock-in Premium Discount | N/A | 25% discount | | Production History | Carried forward | Fresh establishment for all enrollees | With January margins projected near the $9.50/cwt coverage trigger, operations that enrolled at the higher coverage levels could see indemnity payments early in 2026. For producers who missed the deadline, the next enrollment window will open in late 2026 for the 2027 program year. *Read more:* [RFD-TV](https://www.rfdtv.com/last-chance-for-2026-dairy-margin-coverage-farmers-must-act-by-feb-26) --- ## 2. USDA Raises 2026 Milk Production Forecast The February WASDE report revised the 2026 U.S. milk production forecast upward by 200 million pounds to 234.5 billion pounds, a 1.2% increase over 2025. The revision is driven by faster-than-expected milk-per-cow growth, now forecast at 24,585 pounds annually. **The supply picture:** | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | 2026 Milk Production Forecast | 234.5 billion lbs (+1.2% YoY) | | Milk Per Cow (Annual) | 24,585 lbs (+65 lbs vs. prior forecast) | | Replacement Heifer Inventory | 3.905 million head | | Class III Forecast (2026) | $17.05/cwt | | Class IV Forecast (2026) | $14.40/cwt | | All-Milk Price Forecast (2026) | $18.75/cwt | The price side of the equation continues to tell a cautious story. The all-milk price forecast slipped another $0.50 to $18.75/cwt, down roughly $2.40 from 2025 levels. Class III dropped $0.60 from the prior forecast. Production efficiency gains are outpacing demand growth, which keeps the supply side heavy and margins tight for producers heading into spring. --- ## 3. Investment Surges Back Into Precision-Fermented Dairy After a quieter 2024-2025, investor interest in precision-fermented dairy proteins is rebounding. Several notable deals landed in February, signaling renewed confidence in the category. **Recent funding activity:** | Company | Country | Product | Funding | |---------|---------|---------|---------| | Verley | France | Whey protein | $38M (Feb 2026) | | Those Vegan Cowboys | Belgium | Casein | Expanded crowdfunding round | | All G | Australia | Lactoferrin | ~$6.6M + JV with Armor Proteines | | Vivici | Netherlands | Whey, lactoferrin | Fresh funding secured | The thesis driving renewed investment is straightforward: demand for animal-free casein and whey is outpacing current production capacity, and customers are coming from unexpected corners beyond traditional dairy alternatives. Market research projects the protein ingredient space will nearly double in the next decade. For conventional dairy producers, this remains a long-horizon story. Precision fermentation is not replacing the cow any time soon, but it is becoming a real factor in ingredient markets, particularly for specialized proteins like lactoferrin and casein. *Read more:* [Dairy Reporter](https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2026/02/27/investment-surges-back-into-precisionfermented-dairy/) --- ## 4. Lifeway Launches Muscle Mates: 20g Protein Kefir Lifeway Foods debuted Muscle Mates this week ahead of Natural Products Expo West (March 3-6 in Anaheim). The product represents the latest push to bring functional dairy into the sports nutrition aisle. **Product specs:** | Feature | Details | |---------|---------| | Format | 8 oz ready-to-drink | | Protein | 20g (dairy-based) | | Creatine | 5g per serving | | Probiotics | 12 live and active cultures | | Lactose-free | Yes | | Flavors | Mixed Berry, Strawberry Banana, Vanilla | The launch taps into two overlapping trends: the high-protein product boom and growing consumer interest in gut health. By combining kefir's probiotic profile with performance nutrition ingredients like creatine, Lifeway is positioning dairy as a functional food platform rather than just a commodity category. *Read more:* [Dairy Reporter](https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2026/02/27/from-lifeway-to-ben-jerrys-new-dairy-and-plant-based-launches/) --- ## 5. U.S. Dairy Exports Start 2026 Strong NEXT member cooperatives secured 82 contracts in January, adding 19.3 million pounds of NEXT-assisted dairy product sales to start 2026. Products are headed to customers across Asia, Oceania, the Middle East and North Africa, South America, and other regions. The January activity builds on a strong second half of 2025, when NEXT-assisted sales totaled over 141.5 million pounds for the full year. Combined with the U.S.-Taiwan trade deal finalized earlier this month (which eliminates all dairy tariffs) and the Latin American agreements from early February, the export pipeline looks healthy heading into spring. For producers, strong exports are one of the few demand-side bright spots in an otherwise supply-heavy 2026 outlook. *Read more:* [NMPF](https://www.nmpf.org/newsletter/news-for-dairy-co-ops-february-2026/) --- ## 6. Retail Dairy Prices: Week Ending February 20 USDA's National Retail Report showed mixed movement in dairy ads and pricing this week. Total conventional dairy ads ticked up slightly, while organic ads surged 29%, with organic shredded cheese ads jumping 501%. **Conventional retail prices (week ending Feb. 20):** | Product | Northeast | Southeast | Midwest | |---------|-----------|-----------|---------| | 1 lb Butter | $3.27 | $3.67 | $3.55 | | 6-8 oz Cheese Block | $2.41 | $2.73 | $2.63 | | 8 oz Shredded Cheese | $2.90 | $3.12 | $2.95 | Butter pricing eased slightly from last week at the national level (1 lb average down to $3.56 from $3.77), though regional variation remains significant. The Northeast continues to see the lowest butter prices while the Southeast runs the highest. Cheese pricing remained relatively stable across regions. --- ## 7. Bird Flu Update: Stabilizing But Still Active The H5N1 situation in U.S. dairy herds has largely stabilized but continues to require monitoring. As of mid-February, the virus has been confirmed in dairy herds across 18 states. California has made notable progress, with only 4 dairy herds under quarantine, down from significantly higher numbers at peak. A second genotype (D1.1) confirmed in dairy cattle in Nevada and Arizona has added complexity to surveillance efforts, joining the original B3.13 genotype. Wisconsin reported its first dairy case in December 2025. USDA continues intensive monitoring, and producers should maintain biosecurity protocols as the industry moves into spring. --- ## Market Snapshot: Week Ending February 27, 2026 | Indicator | Price/Value | Notes | |-----------|-------------|-------| | All-Milk Price Forecast (2026) | $18.75/cwt | Down $0.50 from prior estimate | | Class III Forecast (2026) | $17.05/cwt | Down $0.60 from prior forecast | | Class IV Forecast (2026) | $14.40/cwt | Down $0.10 from prior forecast | | Milk Production Forecast (2026) | 234.5B lbs | +200M from Jan estimate | | Milk Per Cow (2026) | 24,585 lbs | +65 lbs vs. prior forecast | | Replacement Heifer Inventory | 3.905M head | Below year-ago levels | | NEXT Export Contracts (Jan) | 82 contracts | 19.3M lbs of product | | Retail Butter (1 lb, national avg) | $3.56 | Down from $3.77 prior week | | DMC Enrollment | Closed Feb 26 | Enhanced Tier 1 to 6M lbs | --- ## Looking Ahead **Next week:** - **March 3, 2026:** Next Global Dairy Trade auction - **March 3-6, 2026:** Natural Products Expo West in Anaheim, CA (Lifeway, Forager Project, and others debuting new products) **Key dates ahead:** - **March 2026:** Next WASDE report with updated price forecasts - **July 1, 2026:** USMCA mandatory review deadline **What to watch:** - Whether January DMC margins trigger indemnity payments at the $9.50 coverage level - Implementation timeline for the U.S.-Taiwan dairy trade agreement - February milk production data as productivity gains continue to surprise upward - Precision fermentation commercial scaling, with multiple companies targeting U.S. market entry in 2026 --- *Stay informed with our weekly dairy industry roundups. For questions or tips, reach out at [info@therio.ai](mailto:info@therio.ai).*