Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of June 6 - 12, 2026

# Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of June 6 - 12, 2026 USDA's June 11 WASDE report raised 2026 milk production to 236.4 billion pounds, marking a 4.7 billion pound increase from 2025's total of 231.7 billion pounds. The Bureau simultaneously adjusted dairy product forecasts downward, with cheese, nonfat dry milk, and whey prices lowered while Class III milk prices dropped to $16.60 per hundredweight. Meanwhile, CME spot nonfat dry milk fell 4.5 cents during the week to $2.045 per pound, reflecting mounting pressure from abundant milk supplies. --- --- ## 1. This Week From Therio The team is heads-down building this week. If you missed our recent long-form pieces from co-founder Greg Cochara, both are worth catching up on: - [Herdscripting 101: The Hidden Infrastructure Behind Every Dairy Treatment](/news/herdscripting-101) - [Interstate Movement of Dairy Cattle: The Compliance Maze Nobody Talks About](/news/interstate-movement-101) --- ## Industry News ## 2. WASDE Report Lifts Milk Production Forecast to 236.4 Billion Pounds The USDA raised milk production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 based on increased cow inventories and higher milk output per cow, with the 2026 estimate reaching 236.4 billion pounds. This represents a substantial upward revision from previous projections and reflects continued expansion in the U.S. dairy sector. The 2026 dairy cow herd is projected to average 9.620 million head, 10,000 head more than last month, while the herd is expected to hold steady at 9.620 million head in 2027. Despite the larger herd, product price forecasts were lowered, with the Class III milk price forecast dropping to $16.60 per hundredweight and Class IV falling to $19.35. The production increase comes as U.S. milk production is forecast 1.2 percent higher in 2026 as dairy farmers continue to increase herds to supply growth in processing capacity. This expansion is being driven by growing cheese production fueling demand for milk while strong exports have also boosted demand for dairy products. ## 3. CME Spot Markets Slide Under Production Weight The dairy markets fell under the weight of heavy milk production, with CME spot nonfat dry milk dropping 4.5 cents to $2.045 per pound. The decline represented a significant retreat from spring highs, as every NDM futures contract settled south of $2, far below the spot market's spring peak at nearly $2.30. Spot whey powder fell 3 cents to 67 cents, its lowest price since late March, while CME spot Cheddar blocks slipped 0.25 cents to $1.4725, a fresh three-month low. However, butter bucked the trend, climbing 2.5 cents to $1.6925. The week's price action reflected broader supply-demand imbalances. Product price averages for May 2026 were: butter $1.6311, nonfat dry milk $2.0809, cheese $1.6577, and dry whey $0.6396. | Product | Weekly Change | Current Price | Notes | |---------|---------------|---------------|--------| | NDM | -4.5¢ | $2.045/lb | Three-month low | | Cheese Blocks | -0.25¢ | $1.4725/lb | Fresh three-month low | | Whey | -3¢ | $0.67/lb | Lowest since March | | Butter | +2.5¢ | $1.6925/lb | Bucked downtrend | ## 4. Federal Milk Marketing Order Prices Show Wide Class Spreads May 2026 class prices under the Federal milk order pricing system showed: Class II at $20.28 (up $1.46), Class III at $16.92 (up $0.10), and Class IV at $22.32 (up $2.10). The substantial spread between Class III and Class IV milk prices continued to incentivize depooling activities. Component prices for May 2026 included a butterfat price of $1.7001 per pound, with the Class II butterfat price at $1.7071 per pound, while protein and other solids prices were $2.7477 and $0.3840 per pound, respectively. The wide price spreads reflect ongoing market dynamics where butter and powder values have diverged significantly from cheese pricing, creating arbitrage opportunities within the federal order system. ## 5. H5N1 Surveillance Expands with National Milk Testing Strategy USDA continues implementing a National Milk Testing Strategy in partnership with State veterinarians to facilitate comprehensive H5N1 surveillance of the Nation's milk supply and dairy herds, designed to increase understanding of virus spread and support rapid biosecurity implementation. USDA APHIS reported the National Veterinary Services Laboratories confirmed H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype D1.1 in dairy cattle in Nevada, marking the first detection of this virus genotype in dairy cattle. Previously, all dairy cattle detections were HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype B3.13. USDA's voluntary Dairy Herd Status Program currently has 100 herds across 18 States enrolled, while several H5N1 vaccine candidates for dairy cows are undergoing field trials. The agency continues supporting rapid vaccine development alongside enhanced surveillance efforts. Testing requirements remain in effect for interstate movement of lactating dairy cattle, though cattle moving from states with National Milk Testing Strategy Unaffected State Status are no longer required to test for H5N1 prior to movement. ## 6. Global Dairy Trade Shows Mixed Signals At Tuesday's Global Dairy Trade auction, skim milk powder, whole milk powder, and Mozzarella all lost ground while butter and anhydrous milkfat moved higher. The mixed results reflected ongoing volatility in international dairy markets. GDT volume traded rose to 14,364 tonnes as of June 2, 2026, with weighted average prices showing a rising trend for butter but falls for WMP, SMP and the All products average. The auction patterns indicate continued uncertainty in global demand signals. Recent auctions have shown the GDT price index rising over 18% this year, wiping out some losses from last year, though week-to-week volatility continues to characterize the platform. ## 7. Dairy Products Report Reveals Supply-Demand Shifts USDA's Dairy Products report showcased abundant dairy components with significant supply-demand shifts in dairy proteins, as shockingly high prices deterred demand and NDM stocks grew significantly from March to April. April 2026 production data showed cheese totaling 181 million pounds (11.4% above April 2025), dry whey at 76.9 million pounds (7.8% above April 2025), and ice cream at 67.0 million gallons (5.5% above April 2025). The protein ingredient sector showed notable changes, with manufacturers prioritizing whey protein isolates production, with April output topping the prior year by 4.5% though daily average output slipped to the lowest level since August. Manufacturing patterns revealed strategic shifts as processors responded to price signals and demand patterns across different protein categories. ## 8. Feed Markets Remain Stable Despite Production Growth The June WASDE corn outlook remained virtually unchanged, with the projected season-average corn price at $4.40 per bushel, unchanged from the previous report and up a quarter from the 2024-25 average. This stability provides some cost certainty for dairy operations. Soybean projections also remained unchanged this month, with the 2026-27 U.S. season-average soybean price forecast unchanged at $11.40 per bushel, compared with $10.40 in 2025-26. Dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $234 per ton in April, while alfalfa hay prices averaged $185 per ton, and prices for other hay averaged $133 per ton. | Feed Type | Price | Change from 2025-26 | |-----------|-------|-------------------| | Corn | $4.40/bu | +$0.25 | | Soybeans | $11.40/bu | +$1.00 | | Dairy Alfalfa | $234/ton | - | | Other Hay | $133/ton | - | ## 9. Export Markets Show Continued Strength April was another record-breaking month for U.S. dairy product exports, with cheese setting a new monthly record, and butterfat, nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder and low-protein whey all continuing their respective growth streaks. U.S. cheese production is forecast 3 percent higher in 2026, driven by higher milk availability and growth in manufacturing capacity, with exports forecast to reach over 620,000 tons, bolstered by higher supplies and strong price competitiveness. Export forecasts are adjusted higher in 2026 on both milk equivalent bases due to stronger expected cheese and dry whey exports, with exports expected to remain strong in 2027. The competitive positioning of U.S. products continues benefiting from favorable exchange rates and expanding processing capacity in key dairy states. ## 10. Regional Milk Production Patterns Show Variations Washington milk production decreased by 7 percent in April 2026 compared to the previous April, while neighboring Oregon and Idaho had year-over-year increases. In Idaho and Utah, farm level milk output varies from steady to lighter. In Colorado, farm level milk output is decreasing seasonally, with Class I demand seasonally lighter, Class II demand somewhat stronger, and Class III/IV demand steady throughout the region. Regional variations reflect typical seasonal patterns combined with localized weather and feed conditions affecting production decisions across major dairy regions. ## Quick Hits • Milk volumes in the East remain strong this week • Dairy advertisements are down 23% for conventional products and 14% for organic products despite National Dairy Month • Cream availability and demand are steady, though cream multiples increased this week • Wisconsin has tested 9,461 raw milk samples for H5N1 since April 2024 with zero positives • The all milk price for 2026 is increased to $21.25 per cwt • Protein ingredient prices have become so expensive that substitution effects were highlighted in major news outlets including LA Times and ABC News ## What to Watch Next Week Monitor NASS Milk Production report scheduled for later in June for confirmation of herd expansion trends. CME spot markets will likely continue reflecting seasonal milk production patterns and ongoing global trade dynamics. H5N1 testing results under the National Milk Testing Strategy may provide additional insights into virus prevalence. Federal Milk Marketing Order administrators will watch for continued depooling activities given wide class price spreads. Global Dairy Trade auction results will signal international demand patterns heading into Northern Hemisphere summer. *The Therio Dairy Newsdesk provides comprehensive analysis of dairy markets, policy, and industry developments. Our team synthesizes data from USDA, CME, industry organizations, and market participants to deliver actionable intelligence for dairy professionals. Contact us for custom analysis and market insights.*