Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of November 7 - 13, 2026
Spot cheese on the CME diverged dramatically through the week of November 7-13, 2026, with 40-pound blocks climbing to $1.6800 per pound and barrels slipping to $1.6850, while USDA APHIS confirmed two new state-level HPAI detections in Oregon and Indiana and the November WASDE lifted the 2026 all-milk price forecast to
# Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of November 7 - 13, 2026
Spot cheese on the CME diverged dramatically through the week of November 7-13, 2026, with 40-pound blocks climbing to $1.6800 per pound and barrels slipping to $1.6850, while USDA APHIS confirmed two new state-level HPAI detections in Oregon and Indiana and the November WASDE lifted the 2026 all-milk price forecast to $20.10 per cwt, up from October's $19.90, on upgraded cow inventories and per-cow output figures.
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## 1. This Week From Therio
The team is heads-down building this week. If you missed our recent long-form pieces from co-founder Greg Cochara, both are worth catching up on:
- [Herdscripting 101: The Hidden Infrastructure Behind Every Dairy Treatment](/news/herdscripting-101)
- [Interstate Movement of Dairy Cattle: The Compliance Maze Nobody Talks About](/news/interstate-movement-101)
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## Industry News
## 2. November WASDE: USDA Raises 2026 All-Milk Forecast to $20.10 and Boosts Milk Production Outlook
The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released November 10. The report delivered a broadly constructive revision for U.S. dairy, upgrading both production and price expectations heading into calendar year-end.
In the WASDE issued November 10, the milk production forecast was increased for both 2026 and 2027, with both milk cow inventories and output per cow raised for both years. USDA's November WASDE increased 2026 milk production slightly to 237.7 billion pounds on higher cow inventories and milk output per cow.
The all-milk price forecast was raised to $20.10 per cwt for 2026 and $20.50 per cwt for 2027. Those figures compare to October's unchanged $19.90 per cwt for 2026. The directional shift across nearly all product price categories reflects tightening protein markets globally and continued domestic cheese demand. The price forecast for butter was lowered for both 2026 and 2027 due to growth in the milkfat supply outpacing demand, while the cheese price was raised for 2026 based on recent price strength but lowered for 2027 due to expected continued supply growth.
For both 2026 and 2027, the Class IV price forecast was raised as higher NDM prices more than fully offset the effect of lower butter prices. For 2026, the Class III price was raised on higher cheese and whey prices.
| WASDE Component | October 2026 Forecast | November 2026 Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 All-Milk Price ($/cwt) | $19.90 | $20.10 | +$0.20 |
| 2027 All-Milk Price ($/cwt) | $19.90 | $20.50 | +$0.60 |
| 2026 Milk Production (bil. lbs.) | Prior estimate | 237.7 | Raised |
| 2026 Butter Price | Unchanged | Lowered | Negative |
| 2026 Cheese Price | Prior estimate | Raised | Positive |
| 2026 Class IV Price | Prior estimate | Raised | Positive |
| 2026 Class III Price | Prior estimate | Raised | Positive |
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## 3. CME Spot Markets: Cheese Blocks Surge, Barrels Slide, NDM Retreats From Recent Highs
The week of November 10-12 (Tuesday through Wednesday, with Thursday and Friday closed for Veterans Day observance and lighter holiday trade) produced a volatile split-personality cheese market. Cheese prices on the CME Group cash market moved in opposite directions on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, with barrels down $0.0150 to $1.6850 per pound and 40-pound blocks up $0.0550 to $1.6800 per pound, according to USDA Dairy Market News Report 46.
Through the partial week, butter averaged $1.2608 per pound versus a prior-week average of $1.2895, while NDM Grade A averaged $1.3350 per pound against a prior-week average of $2.1765. The NDM retreat is notable given that CME spot NDM had rallied 4.75 cents to $2.2675 per pound in the week prior, within a few cents of the all-time high set this spring.
CME futures for the November contract settled as follows through Wednesday: Class III at $17.82 per cwt, Class IV at $21.04 per cwt, Cheese at $1.6820 per pound, Dry Whey at $0.7598 per pound, NDM at $2.0850 per pound, and Butter at $1.3200 per pound.
| CME Product | Wed. Nov. 11 Cash Close | Change (Day) | Week Avg. | Prior Week Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butter Grade AA | $1.2575/lb | -$0.0075 | $1.2608 | $1.2895 |
| NDM Grade A | $2.0725/lb | -$0.0775 | $2.1350 | $2.1765 |
| Cheddar Blocks (40 lb) | $1.6800/lb | +$0.0550 | -- | -- |
| Cheddar Barrels | $1.6850/lb | -$0.0150 | -- | -- |
| Dry Whey (Nov. futures) | $0.7598/lb | -- | -- | -- |
October final FMMO class prices were confirmed this week: Class III Milk at $15.16 per cwt and Class IV Milk at $20.54 per cwt, both unchanged from initial announcements. The Class I Advanced price for November stands at $20.27 per cwt.
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## 4. FMMO Class Prices: October Finals Locked, November Class I Advanced at $20.27
Federal Milk Marketing Order economics remained supportive for producer returns through the week, even as spot-market volatility in butter and NDM complicated the Class IV calculus. Product price averages for October were $1.3651 for butter, $2.0081 for nonfat dry milk, $1.4444 for cheese, and $0.7191 for dry whey.
November Class III futures closed at $16.08 per cwt mid-week before strength in the cheese complex pushed settlements toward $17.82 by Wednesday, November 11. Most Class IV contracts also gained ground, but the weak butter market dragged November Class IV futures modestly lower at points during the week.
| FMMO Price | October 2026 (Final) | November 2026 (Estimated) |
|---|---|---|
| Class I Advanced ($/cwt) | -- | $20.27 |
| Class III ($/cwt) | $15.16 | ~$17.82 (futures) |
| Class IV ($/cwt) | $20.54 | ~$21.04 (futures) |
| Avg. Butter (product avg.) | $1.3651/lb | Tracking lower |
| Avg. NDM (product avg.) | $2.0081/lb | Tracking near $2.07-$2.18 |
| Avg. Cheese (product avg.) | $1.4444/lb | Tracking higher |
| Avg. Dry Whey (product avg.) | $0.7191/lb | Tracking ~$0.76-$0.87 |
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## 5. HPAI H5N1 in Dairy: Oregon Becomes 22nd Infected State, Indiana Confirmed the Week Prior
H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza continued its geographic expansion in the U.S. dairy herd during the week, with USDA APHIS confirming a first-ever detection in Oregon and providing updated epidemiological data following Indiana's first confirmation just days earlier.
On November 10, 2026, USDA APHIS National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) confirmed via PCR detection of HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4b in a dairy cattle herd in Oregon. This marks the first reported case of HPAI in cattle in Oregon. Dairy cattle in a total of 22 states have been infected since the start of the outbreak in March 2024, with APHIS seeing cases in previously unaffected states this year. APHIS is working closely with the Oregon Department of Agriculture to conduct additional on-farm investigations, diagnostic testing, and epidemiological data collection to better understand the detection and prevent further disease spread.
Just one week prior, on November 2, 2026, APHIS NVSL confirmed via PCR detection of HPAI H5N1 genotype B3.13 in a dairy cattle herd in Indiana. Most HPAI cases in U.S. dairy herds have resulted from live animal movements linked to the original spillover event detected in the Texas Panhandle in late 2023, involving the B3.13 genotype.
The Oregon affected dairy herd was identified through Oregon's ongoing surveillance program for HPAI in dairy cattle. The National Milk Testing Strategy (NMTS) is designed to identify H5N1 in dairy cattle through testing milk samples, allowing animal-health officials to monitor where the virus is circulating.
Dairies are required to send only milk from healthy animals into processing for human consumption, and milk from impacted animals is being diverted from the commercial milk tank or destroyed so that it does not enter the human food supply. Pasteurization effectively inactivates the HPAI virus. According to the CDC, HPAI viruses circulating in birds and U.S. dairy cattle pose a low risk to the general public.
| State | First Confirmed | Strain | Detection Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | Nov. 10, 2026 | H5 clade 2.3.4.4b | PCR (NMTS surveillance) |
| Indiana | Nov. 2, 2026 | H5N1 genotype B3.13 | PCR (NVSL) |
| Washington (40+ herds) | Oct. 8, 2026 | H5N1 genotype B3.13 | PCR (NVSL) |
| Total states affected | 22 | -- | Since March 2024 |
As of early November, 40 dairy herds had been reported as infected in Washington state since October 8, with almost all concentrated in Yakima County. APHIS recommends dairy producers strengthen biosecurity practices and immediately report livestock showing clinical signs of HPAI to state veterinarians.
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## 6. GDT Event 415: Price Index Rises 3.0% for Third Straight Gain, Cheese Leads
The Global Dairy Trade platform's Event 415, which settled November 3 (immediately ahead of this week's reporting period), provided a firmly positive backdrop for U.S. dairy markets entering the November 7-13 window. GDT Event 415 closed with a 3.0% increase in the price index and an average winning price of $4,166 per metric ton, with 39,806 MT sold and 111 winning bidders.
The November 3 result marked the third straight increase in the GDT price index. The auction featured 166 participating bidders and 111 winning bidders, with prices higher for Cheddar, Mozzarella, skim milk powder, whole milk powder, and lactose, and lower for butter, anhydrous milkfat, and buttermilk powder.
Cheddar cheese recorded the strongest individual increase, with prices rising 8.6% to $3,970 per metric ton. Whole milk powder gained 5.9% to $3,971 per ton, while mozzarella prices increased 5.8% to $4,104 per ton. Skim milk powder averaged $4,109 per ton ($1.86 per pound), up 3.1%.
On the CME, cash cheese barrels slipped while butter, nonfat dry milk, Class III futures, and the Global Dairy Trade index (plus 9.4%) rallied higher in a broader context reflecting tightened Fonterra auction offerings.
| GDT Event 415 Product | Avg. Winning Price ($/MT) | Change vs. Event 414 |
|---|---|---|
| Cheddar | $3,970 | +8.6% |
| Mozzarella | $4,104 | +5.8% |
| Whole Milk Powder | $3,971 | +5.9% |
| Skim Milk Powder | $4,109 | +3.1% |
| Butter | Declined | Negative |
| Anhydrous Milkfat | Declined | Negative |
| Buttermilk Powder | Declined | Negative |
| Overall GDT Index | $4,166/MT avg. | +3.0% |
The next Global Dairy Trade auction is scheduled for November 17, 2026.
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## 7. Butter Market: Oversupply Pressure Keeps CME Grade AA Below $1.30
Butter remained the most structurally troubled commodity in the complex this week, trading well below the highs seen earlier in 2026. CME Grade AA butter closed the prior week at $1.2650 per pound and continued drifting lower through November 11, with the cash price settling at $1.2575, down $0.0075 on the day.
The price forecast for butter was lowered for both 2026 and 2027 in the November WASDE due to growth in the milkfat supply outpacing demand. Salted 80% butter loads were more available, while unsalted 80% butter was less available, and unsalted 82% butter was tighter and commanded premium spot prices.
In the Central region, milk supplies continued to improve seasonally, with cream supplies tightening early in the week before loosening as the week progressed, and spot sales of bulk 80% and 82% butter held steady. Butter production is steady, with churning running six or more days, and offers of spot cream for churning under seasonal conditions are tightening slightly as spot milk availability broadens. Market participants note Class I and Class IV processors are increasing spot milk intake in the region.
| CME Butter Grade AA | Mon. Nov. 9 | Tue. Nov. 10 | Wed. Nov. 11 | Week Avg. | Prior Week Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Close ($/lb) | $1.2600 | $1.2650 | $1.2575 | $1.2608 | $1.2895 |
| Day Change | -- | +$0.0050 | -$0.0075 | -- | -- |
| Nov. Futures ($/lb) | $1.3150 | $1.3150 | $1.3200 | -- | -- |
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## 8. NDM and Dry Whey: Protein Powders Retreat From All-Time High Territory
Nonfat dry milk had its most significant single-session pullback of recent weeks on Wednesday, November 11, dropping $0.0775 to $2.0725 per pound on 11 trades. The retreat follows a remarkable run-up that saw CME spot NDM rally 4.75 cents to $2.2675 per pound the week prior, within a few cents of the all-time high set during the spring of 2026.
Dry whey, by contrast, continued to demonstrate upside resilience. Dry whey closed Wednesday at $0.8700 per pound, up $0.0350 on the session. The CME November futures contract for dry whey settled at $0.7598 per pound. NDM spot availability remained consistent week over week, though manufacturers continue sharing dryer capacity among NDM products, and low/medium heat NDM prices saw significant swings both upward and downward during the period.
On the retail side, butter fell to the fourth most advertised organic item, with ads down 16% week over week, while organic dairy ads rose 70%.
| Product | Wed. Nov. 11 Cash | Day Change | Nov. Futures (Wed.) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDM Grade A | $2.0725/lb | -$0.0775 | $2.0850/lb | Retreating from highs |
| Dry Whey | $0.8700/lb | +$0.0350 | $0.7598/lb | Firm |
| NDM (prior week avg.) | $2.1765/lb | -- | -- | Reference |
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## 9. USDA Dairy Market News: Central Cold Storage Steady, Regional Supply Conditions Mixed
Central cold storage figures for November 2 showed butter at 44,777 units and cheese at 79,441, both unchanged from November 1. Those flat readings suggest that inventory accumulation has stabilized after a period of buildup in the dairy fats complex, consistent with the WASDE's assessment that milkfat supply growth is outpacing demand.
The USDA weekly dairy report for November 2-6, 2026 showed butter and cheese cash values lower while nonfat dry milk and dry whey rose, alongside final October Federal order class prices, September production and cold storage data, retail ad trends, tighter unsalted butter supplies, international output figures, and a lower milk-feed ratio.
Spot Class III milk prices ranged from flat to $3.00 over Class during the reporting period. Regional cream dynamics were active, with Class I and Class IV processors increasing spot milk intake in the Central region as the seasonal flush begins to wind down in the upper Midwest.
| Cold Storage Item | Nov. 1 Level | Nov. 2 Level | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butter (central) | 44,777 | 44,777 | 0 |
| Cheese (central) | 79,441 | 79,441 | 0 |
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## 10. Washington State HPAI: Genetic Sequencing Confirms B3.13 Across 40+ Yakima County Herds
The epidemiological picture in Washington state continued to sharpen this week following APHIS's November 4 release of whole-genome sequencing data on the herds first detected October 8. APHIS announced that NVSL completed whole genome sequencing and confirmed the virus affecting Washington herds is H5N1 genotype B3.13.
Most cases in U.S. dairy herds have resulted from live animal movements linked to the original spillover event detected in the Texas Panhandle in late 2023, involving the B3.13 genotype. Surveillance is ongoing around the initial premises and throughout Washington state.
USDA offers financial assistance to help dairy producers enhance biosecurity and offset costs and losses from HPAI H5N1, in addition to the National Milk Testing Strategy and many other testing efforts and programs. APHIS recommends enhanced biosecurity measures for all dairy farms.
The continued geographic spread of HPAI into first-time states, the sequencing confirmation of a single dominant B3.13 strain in Washington, and the activation of NMTS surveillance in Oregon all point to a disease management situation that remains unresolved heading into winter housing season, when herd movement typically increases biosecurity risk.
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## 11. New Zealand Milk Price Forecast Rises to $10.43/kgMS Following GDT Strength
International market signals continued to support above-average producer returns in key exporting regions. Following GDT Event 414, a New Zealand milk price forecasting group increased their 2026/2027 season milk price forecast to $10.43 per kilogram milk solids (kgMS), with the upper range extending to $10.83 per kgMS. The 2026/2027 season milk price forecast reflects a U.S. cents per NZ dollar exchange rate assumption of 0.5839.
The weighted average GDT price at Event 415 was $4,166 per tonne, with 39,806 tonnes of product sold, mostly WMP and SMP, and the next auction is scheduled for Tuesday, November 17, 2026.
As of early November, SMP, WMP, and all products have recovered modestly while butter continues on a downward trend globally. The divergence between protein-side strength and milkfat weakness mirrors the domestic CME dynamic almost exactly, suggesting shared structural supply factors in both domestic and international milkfat markets.
| NZ Milk Price Metric | 2026/2027 Forecast |
|---|---|
| Central Forecast | $10.43/kgMS |
| Upper Range | $10.83/kgMS |
| FX Assumption | 0.5839 USD/NZD |
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## 12. Industry Voices: State Dairy Organizations Urge USDA to Authorize HPAI Vaccine for Dairy Cattle
State organizations have urged USDA to authorize a dairy HPAI vaccine as the outbreak continues to expand geographically into new states. The push for a veterinary countermeasure intensified this week as Oregon's first dairy herd detection added a Pacific Northwest dimension to what had been largely a Plains and Midwest outbreak trajectory.
The NMTS infrastructure, which routes bulk milk tank samples from licensed plants through state and federal laboratories for H5N1 screening, has been credited with early detection of several of the most recent state-level entries, including Oregon. The National Milk Testing Strategy is designed to identify H5N1 in dairy cattle through testing milk samples, allowing animal-health officials to monitor where the virus is circulating.
Biosecurity costs, indemnity payments, and milk diversion losses continue to represent real financial burdens on affected operations, particularly in Yakima County, Washington, where more than 40 herds have been confirmed since October 8. USDA offers financial assistance to help dairy producers enhance biosecurity and offset costs and losses from HPAI H5N1. Industry stakeholders are closely watching whether the incoming administration's USDA transition team will accelerate conditional vaccine licensing timelines heading into 2027.
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## Quick Hits
- GDT Cheddar averaged $3,970 per metric ton ($1.80 per pound) at Event 415, up 8.6%, with the December contract at $4,220 per ton and January 2027 at $4,007 per ton.
- October final FMMO class prices: Class III at $15.16 per cwt and Class IV at $20.54 per cwt, both unchanged from initial announcements.
- In June 2026, Australian packaged milk sales totaled 188.1 million liters, down 6.3 million liters year over year, adding a demand-side footnote to the global milk powder rally.
- Oregon's first HPAI dairy cattle case brings the total to 22 affected states since the outbreak began in March 2024, with APHIS noting cases in previously unaffected states throughout 2026, including Indiana.
- Organic dairy ads rose 70% week over week in the USDA reporting period ending November 6.
- The WASDE cheese price forecast for 2027 was lowered due to expected continued supply growth even as the 2026 cheese price was raised on recent price strength.
- GDT Event 415 ran for 18 bidding rounds and lasted 2 hours and 56 minutes, reflecting active buyer competition across the protein complex.
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## What to Watch Next Week
- **GDT Event 416 (November 17):** The next Global Dairy Trade auction is scheduled for November 17, 2026. With three straight index gains in hand, the market will be watching whether Fonterra adjusts offering volumes, particularly for WMP and SMP, and whether butter can find a floor after weeks of pressure.
- **CME Spot Markets:** Block-barrel spread inversion (barrels above blocks briefly during the week) is a signal worth tracking. Renewed block momentum vs. continued barrel softness will determine where November Class III ultimately settles.
- **Oregon HPAI Investigation:** APHIS will complete genetic sequencing on the Oregon detection and announce final results as soon as they are available. Strain identification will clarify whether this is another B3.13 live-animal movement case or a new introduction pathway.
- **USDA APHIS Vaccine Decision:** Industry pressure on USDA to authorize a conditional dairy HPAI vaccine license is building ahead of winter housing season. Any regulatory action or formal comment period announcement would be significant.
- **November Class III/IV Settlements:** With the month more than halfway complete, November Class III futures are tracking around $17.80-$17.82 per cwt. Final settlement will incorporate the remaining two-plus weeks of daily CME cash prices.
- **Butter Storage and Cream Markets:** Watch for any signs of a seasonal bottom in butter given churning is running 6 or more days per week and spot cream availability is reportedly beginning to tighten in the Central region.
- **December WASDE (Dec. 10):** The final WASDE of 2026 is now four weeks away and will incorporate NASS October milk production data expected before month-end.
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*The Therio Dairy Newsdesk publishes weekly U.S. dairy industry roundups covering commodity markets, animal health, policy, and global trade. Therio combines data-driven market analysis with on-the-ground industry intelligence to serve producers, cooperatives, processors, and market participants across the dairy supply chain. All prices and figures cited reflect data available through the week ending November 13, 2026.*