Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of October 24 - 30, 2026

# Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of October 24 - 30, 2026 U.S. CME spot cheese blocks held near $1.73/lb. to close the week of October 24-30, 2026, even as butter slipped toward $1.28-$1.31/lb. and Grade A NDM retreated from the prior week's $2.155 average, reflecting a diverging market where solids-protein strength is bumping against persistent fat-side softness. That divergence is echoed globally, with the October 20 GDT Event 414 posting a headline 2.5% index gain driven almost entirely by milk powder, while GDT Cheddar slumped 7.4%. On the disease front, USDA APHIS continued to track H5N1 HPAI across Idaho, Texas, Kansas, and Washington, with cumulative 2026 confirmed dairy-herd detections holding near 88 through early October before Washington's first-ever confirmations added to the count. USDA's October WASDE trimmed the 2026 milk production forecast slightly to 236.9 billion pounds. --- ## 1. This Week From Therio The team is heads-down building this week. If you missed our recent long-form pieces from co-founder Greg Cochara, both are worth catching up on: - [Herdscripting 101: The Hidden Infrastructure Behind Every Dairy Treatment](/news/herdscripting-101) - [Interstate Movement of Dairy Cattle: The Compliance Maze Nobody Talks About](/news/interstate-movement-101) --- ## Industry News ## 2. CME Spot Markets: Blocks Hold Firm, Butter Softens, NDM Slides On Monday, October 26, CME spot Cheddar blocks closed at $1.7300/lb. (down 0.50 cents), barrels held at $1.7200/lb. (unchanged), Grade A NDM closed at $2.0600/lb. (down 3.50 cents), and butter slid to $1.3000/lb. (down 4.00 cents). Those openings set the tone for a week defined by a sharp fat-versus-protein split. The prior week (October 19-23) averages provide a useful baseline: NDM Grade A averaged $2.1550/lb. (down 5.55 cents from the week before that), and Grade AA butter averaged $1.3490/lb. (up 3.80 cents). The opening-day moves on October 26, therefore, represented a reversal in butter's short recovery and a continuation of the NDM pullback from recent highs. The two-week product price averages for October 2026 stood at: butter $1.3610/lb., nonfat dry milk $1.9807/lb., cheese $1.4098/lb., and dry whey $0.7228/lb. Dry whey's relative resilience above $0.72/lb. continued to underpin Class III futures even as cheese spot trade remained thin. The November Class III futures contract was quoted at $17.93/cwt. and the November Class IV contract at $20.65/cwt. on Monday, October 26, while November cheese futures settled near $1.6920/lb. | Product | Oct 26 Close | Prev. Week Avg. | Change | |---|---|---|---| | Cheddar Block (40 lb.) | $1.7300/lb. | $1.7385/lb. | -0.85 cents | | Cheddar Barrel | $1.7200/lb. | $1.7040/lb. | +1.60 cents | | Butter Grade AA | $1.3000/lb. | $1.3490/lb. | -4.90 cents | | NDM Grade A | $2.0600/lb. | $2.1550/lb. | -9.50 cents | | Nov. Class III Futures | $17.93/cwt. | -- | -- | | Nov. Class IV Futures | $20.65/cwt. | -- | -- | ## 3. USDA October WASDE: 2026 Milk Output Trimmed to 236.9 Billion Pounds USDA's October WASDE, released October 9, decreased the 2026 milk production forecast slightly to 236.9 billion pounds, citing lower cow inventories and milk output per cow. The report covered dairy, beef, and feedstuff supply-and-demand projections. For both 2026 and 2027, the Class III price forecast was lowered because higher whey prices only partially offset lower cheese prices. The Class IV price forecast was raised as higher NDM prices more than fully offset lower butter expectations. That pricing dynamic was playing out in real time at the CME, with NDM having traded well above $2.00/lb. for most of October before the late-week retreat. The WASDE noted that the milk production forecast is decreased slightly for both 2026 and 2027. USDA forecasts 2026/27 corn prices at $4.70/bushel, up 13 percent year over year, which adds a feed-cost headwind for producers heading into Q4. Tighter margins on the feed side add complexity to projections for herd expansion into 2027. | WASDE Item (Oct. 2026) | 2026 Projection | |---|---| | U.S. Milk Production | 236.9 billion lbs. | | All-Milk Price (2026) | ~$21.25/cwt. (June WASDE reference) | | Corn Price Forecast 2026/27 | $4.70/bu. | | Dairy Fat Exports (fat basis) | 20.1 billion lbs. (est.) | ## 4. USDA ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: October 2026 Edition The USDA Economic Research Service released the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for October 2026, authored by Russell Knight, Hannah Brooks (Taylor), Adriana Valcu-Lisman, Angel Teran, Mildred Haley, Grace Grossen, and Brian Williams. The report analyzes month-to-month changes in the WASDE on domestic and international markets for beef, pork, poultry, eggs, and dairy products. According to October 2 Dairy Market News reports cited within the ERS Outlook, spot cheese availability was abundant, while domestic butter demand was moderate in the West and stronger in the Central region. Those regional imbalances help explain why block-barrel spreads have remained elevated and why spot butter has struggled to establish sustained upward momentum heading into the holiday baking season. On the export side, ERS forecast 2026 U.S. dairy exports on a fat basis at 20.1 billion pounds (down 0.2 billion pounds from the prior estimate), and on a skim-solids basis at 49.2 billion pounds (down 0.1 billion pounds). The slight downward revision reflects tepid global demand for U.S. cheese at current price levels and intensifying competition from Oceania suppliers in SMP categories. ## 5. USDA National Dairy Products Sales Report: Physical Market Prices Show Softening Through Mid-October Cheddar cheese prices received for 40-pound blocks averaged $1.43/lb. for the week ending October 10, 2026, a decrease of 2.7 cents from the previous week. That physical-market average trailed CME block prices by roughly 30 cents per pound, a gap reflecting the premium producers and traders were willing to pay for spot flexibility during a period of tight nearby cheese supply. Dry whey prices for bag, tote, and tanker sales meeting USDA Extra Grade standards averaged 72.0 cents/lb. for the week ending October 10, up 3.8 cents from the prior week. Nonfat dry milk prices for Extra Grade or USPHS Grade A standards averaged $1.97/lb. for the same period. Butter prices reported through the National Dairy Products Sales Report showed a weighted price of $1.3600/lb. for the week ending October 10, continuing a decline from the $1.4907/lb. high reported September 12. The September-to-October butter slide of approximately 13 cents/lb. has been one of the defining price stories of Q4 2026, pressuring Class IV values even as NDM has rallied. | NDPSR Week Ending | Butter $/lb. | Cheddar Block $/lb. | NDM $/lb. | Dry Whey $/lb. | |---|---|---|---|---| | Oct. 10, 2026 | $1.3600 | $1.4300 | $1.9700 | $0.7200 | | Sept. 26, 2026 | $1.3805 | n/a | n/a | n/a | | Sept. 12, 2026 | $1.4907 | n/a | n/a | n/a | ## 6. GDT Event 414 (October 20): Index Up 2.5%, But Cheddar Drops 7.4% The GDT price index rose 2.5% at Event 414, held on October 20, 2026. A total of 42,088 metric tons were sold at an average winning price of USD $4,021 per metric ton, in an auction with 145 participating bidders. The headline gain masked sharply divergent product-level moves. Prices were higher for Mozzarella, skim milk powder, whole milk powder, lactose, and buttermilk powder, but lower for Cheddar, butter, and anhydrous milkfat. The powder complex continues to attract buying interest from Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern importers, while Cheddar is caught between ample domestic U.S. supply and competitive New Zealand pricing. GDT Cheddar averaged $3,645/metric ton ($1.65/lb.), down 7.4%. By contract period, the November Cheddar contract settled at $4,235/ton (up 3.9%), while December dropped to $3,583/ton (down 8.2%) and January 2027 fell to $3,585/ton (down 7.9%). Skim milk powder averaged $3,975/metric ton ($1.80/lb.), up 3.4%. Buttermilk powder led all gainers with an 8.4% increase. Whole milk powder rose 4.4% to $3,760/metric ton. Cheddar cheese recorded the sharpest single-product decline at the event, falling 7.4% to $3,645/metric ton. Anhydrous milk fat lost 3.4% to $5,488/metric ton, while butter declined 0.4% to $4,721/metric ton. | GDT Event 414 Product | Avg. Price ($/MT) | Avg. Price ($/lb.) | Change vs. Prior Event | |---|---|---|---| | Whole Milk Powder | $3,760 | $1.71 | +4.4% | | Skim Milk Powder | $3,975 | $1.80 | +3.4% | | Buttermilk Powder | n/a | n/a | +8.4% | | Mozzarella | $3,880 | $1.76 | +1.3% | | Cheddar | $3,645 | $1.65 | -7.4% | | Butter | $4,721 | $2.14 | -0.4% | | Anhydrous Milkfat | $5,488 | $2.49 | -3.4% | The October 20 increase marked the second straight gain in the GDT price index, and the overall index has now risen in the majority of recent semi-monthly events. A follow-on GDT auction result for late October was not yet published as of press time. ## 7. H5N1 HPAI in Dairy Cattle: Washington State Confirmations, 88+ Herds in 2026 On October 8, 2026, USDA APHIS National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) confirmed via PCR detection of HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4b in two dairy cattle herds in Washington State, with APHIS completing genetic sequencing for final genotyping results. These were the first confirmed HPAI cases in livestock in Washington State. While dairy cattle in a total of 19 states have been infected since the outbreak began in March 2024, APHIS had seen cases in only a small number of states during 2026. Dairy infections continued throughout 2026. In September, APHIS data showed additional affected herds in Idaho and Texas, and by early October, 88 dairy-herd detections had been reported during the 2026 calendar year. Earlier USDA data also showed substantial activity in Utah and Idaho. HPAI was also reported in a Kansas dairy herd (October 8, 2026) and in Washington State (October 15, 2026), but sequences had not been released and genotypes had not been confirmed, leaving the relationship between Washington and Kansas viruses and those in Idaho, Utah, and Texas unclear. USDA continues its National Milk Testing Strategy (NMTS) to identify affected states and herds through dairy-processing-plant silo monitoring, state surveillance, outbreak investigations, and testing associated with interstate movement. USDA emphasizes enhanced surveillance and biosecurity while vaccine candidates for dairy cattle undergo field trials. FDA remains confident that pasteurization is effective at inactivating the HPAI virus and that the commercial, pasteurized milk supply is safe. Milk from affected animals is diverted or destroyed to prevent entry into the food supply, and CDC continues to consider the public health risk low. | State | 2026 Confirmed Herds (through Oct. 15) | Notes | |---|---|---| | Idaho | 65+ (per APHIS data) | Ongoing B3.13 genotype | | Utah | Multiple | B3.13 confirmed | | Texas | Multiple (Sept. additions) | Active through Sept. | | Kansas | 1 (Oct. 8) | Sequencing pending | | Washington | 2 (Oct. 8-15) | First-ever state detections | ## 8. NMTS and Interstate Movement Rules: Updated Guidance Still in Effect In May 2026, USDA updated its guidance to allow interstate movement of lactating dairy cattle without individual influenza A tests, specifically from states with Unaffected State Status under the NMTS. That change, which took effect in late April, reduced compliance costs for producers in the majority of states where no active outbreaks have been confirmed. APHIS no longer requires HPAI testing for lactating dairy cattle moving interstate from unaffected states, which maintain status through ongoing surveillance. The guidance states that lactating dairy cattle moving interstate from States with Unaffected State Status under the National Milk Testing Strategy are no longer required to be tested for HPAI H5N1 prior to movement. Wisconsin reported 121 milk samples tested through the NMTS in October 2026 as of its October 7 update, reflecting the continued burden of surveillance even in states that have not confirmed positive herds. The Washington State confirmations in October raise questions about whether herd movement tracing will prompt new interstate testing requirements for cattle originating from or transiting through the Pacific Northwest. Industry groups are monitoring APHIS for any revised Federal Order guidance before the end of October. ## 9. Regional Milk Production and Class Markets: Northeast Heavy, West Strengthening According to USDA Dairy Market News for the week of October 12-16, milk supplies were heavy in the Northeast, and milk production was strengthening in the Central and West regions. Class I demand remained very good in the East and steady in the West. Class II ESL heavy whipping cream manufacturing was increasing in the East and Central regions while ice cream production was declining. Class II demand was higher in the West. Class III cheese production was steady in the East and Central regions, and cream cheese production was also noted. As of report publication, Class III spot milk prices were running flat to $4.00-over-Class in the Central region. For October 2026, the advanced Class IV skim milk pricing factor stood at $14.12/cwt., the Class II skim milk price at $14.82/cwt., and the Class II nonfat solids price at $1.5935/lb. Those Class II factors remain supportive of fluid-milk and cultured product economics headed into the holiday quarter. ## 10. Feed Costs and Corn Price Outlook: $4.70/Bu. Forecast Adds Margin Pressure USDA forecasts 2026/27 corn prices at $4.70/bushel, up 13 percent year over year. That increase is material for dairy producers who rely on corn-based rations, particularly in the Midwest and Southwest where corn silage and dry corn are primary energy sources. Assuming a typical milking cow consuming the grain equivalent of roughly 8-10 pounds of corn per day, a $1 increase in corn per bushel translates to approximately $0.50-$0.65/cwt. in direct feed cost pressure on a whole-herd basis. Corn, soybean meal, and alfalfa hay prices all remain above historical averages entering Q4 2026, and early weather reports from the Southern Plains suggest a dry pattern may persist through November. With milk prices under modest downward revision in the October WASDE, squeezed margins are a growing concern for mid-size and smaller independent operators. Feed cost hedging via CME corn futures has remained active among larger cooperatives and vertically integrated operations. ## 11. USDA Dairy Products Report: NASS August Data and Production Trends USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service released the October 2026 Dairy Products report, covering U.S. dairy products production by product and month for 2025 and 2026. Nonfat dry milk prices received for bag, tote, and tanker sales meeting USDA Extra Grade or USPHS Grade A standards averaged $1.97/lb. for the week ending October 10, 2026. The NASS Dairy Products report confirmed that NDM production ramped sharply in August and September as processors diverted more skim into powder given the strong export demand backdrop. That production surge has since caught up with demand, contributing to the late-October NDM spot price retreat from the $2.15 region. Cheddar and American-type cheese production remained broadly steady, consistent with the flat-class to modest-premium spot milk environment in the Central and West regions. ## 12. GDT Context: SMP at Highest Level Since 2022 Anchors NDM Optimism At the 19th GDT auction of 2026 (October 6), skim milk powder prices rose 4.3% to $3,847/metric ton, the highest level since June 2022. The overall GDT index increased 1.2% to $3,928/metric ton. Over the past six auctions, SMP prices climbed 22.5%, or approximately $700/metric ton. For the third consecutive auction, SMP traded above whole milk powder, which rose 1.2% to $3,600/metric ton. The price gap between the two products reached 6.7%. That inversion is structurally unusual and reflects specific protein-demand dynamics from importing nations, particularly in Asia and North Africa. Meanwhile, dairy fats continued to weaken at the GDT platform. Butter fell another 0.3% to $4,740/metric ton. The decline continued for eight consecutive GDT auctions, with butter losing 17.3%, or roughly $1,000/metric ton, over that stretch. Anhydrous milkfat fell 1.1% to $5,683/metric ton. The relentless global butter slide is a direct headwind for U.S. Class IV and adds context for why CME butter has struggled to sustain rallies above $1.35/lb. heading into the traditional holiday-demand peak. --- ## Quick Hits - Dry buttermilk powder (FOB) was quoted at $1.82-$1.92/lb. in the Central and East regions and $1.87-$2.05/lb. in the West for the week, with Western mostly prices near $1.90-$2.00/lb. - The GDT price index has now increased in five of the last six semi-monthly auctions, suggesting a broadly constructive global dairy commodity backdrop even as individual products diverge. - USDA is providing financial assistance for producers with H5N1-affected premises to improve on-site biosecurity and compensate for lost milk production. - GDT auction results indicate a continued increase in average global dairy prices, primarily driven by higher prices for powdered dairy products. - USDA's GenoFlu H5N1 genotyping tool classified all ten Utah mink H5N1 sequences as belonging to the B3.13 genotype that circulates in U.S. dairy cattle, confirming spillover risk to other farm species. - Class II ESL heavy whipping cream manufacturing is ramping up in the East and Central regions as the industry transitions from ice cream season into fall and holiday dairy fat usage patterns. - The USDA ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for November 2026 is scheduled for release on November 17, 2026. --- ## What to Watch Next Week 1. **CME butter recovery test.** Butter closed October 26 at $1.30/lb. and must hold or reclaim $1.31-$1.32 to avoid signaling a deeper break toward $1.25. Holiday baking demand should provide a floor, but the GDT trend says fat supply is ample globally. 2. **NDM stabilization.** After a 9.5-cent weekly decline from the prior week's $2.155 average, the market needs to find a base. Watch for physical export inquiry from Southeast Asian buyers following GDT Event 414's supportive SMP result. 3. **GDT Event 415 (next bi-monthly auction).** The next GDT auction result will be closely watched to see whether the October 20 powder gains can be sustained or represent a one-event correction. 4. **APHIS Washington State sequencing.** Final genotype results for the two Washington dairy herds confirmed October 8-15 are expected soon. If a novel genotype appears (beyond B3.13), interstate movement rules could be revisited quickly. 5. **WASDE November 10 release.** USDA's November WASDE will carry updated production, price, and trade forecasts. The market will focus on any revision to the 2026 all-milk price estimate and whether the Class III forecast is lowered further. 6. **Class I utilization signals.** Watch USDA Dairy Market News for demand updates in the Northeast, where heavy milk supplies risk a build in Class I surplus heading into the typically moderate November fluid demand period. 7. **Feed cost tracking.** December CME corn futures and the USDA November Crop Production report (November 10) will shape producer margin expectations for Q1 2027 breeding and culling decisions. --- *The Therio Dairy Newsdesk publishes weekly U.S. dairy industry roundups synthesizing USDA, CME, GDT, APHIS, and cooperative data to help producers, processors, lenders, and industry professionals navigate markets with clarity and precision. Therio is a genetics and reproductive management company committed to the long-term productivity and profitability of the North American dairy herd. For questions, submissions, or partnership inquiries, contact the Newsdesk team through the Therio platform.*