Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of October 31 - November 6, 2026

# Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of October 31 - November 6, 2026 CME spot butter slid to $1.2725 per pound by Thursday, November 5, losing nearly 6 cents on the week, while NDM surged to $2.2125 per pound at the same session, a stark divergence that defined a volatile week in U.S. dairy markets. Meanwhile, HPAI H5N1 delivered two fresh geographies into the outbreak map, Indiana confirmed its first-ever dairy herd detection on November 2 and Washington's cluster climbed to 40 affected premises, as the Global Dairy Trade's Event 415 on November 3 posted its third consecutive index gain of 3.0 percent, led by cheddar up 8.6 percent and whole milk powder up 5.9 percent, though butter fell 4.7 percent on that platform as well, underscoring a global fat-versus-protein split. The November WASDE, the definitive word on annual supply-and-demand balances, is due November 10 and is not yet in hand as of this edition's close. --- ## 1. This Week From Therio The team is heads-down building this week. If you missed our recent long-form pieces from co-founder Greg Cochara, both are worth catching up on: - [Herdscripting 101: The Hidden Infrastructure Behind Every Dairy Treatment](/news/herdscripting-101) - [Interstate Movement of Dairy Cattle: The Compliance Maze Nobody Talks About](/news/interstate-movement-101) --- ## Industry News ## 2. CME Spot Markets: Butter Plunges, NDM Rockets, Cheese Holds Barrel Premium The CME spot session for the week of November 2-6 produced one of the sharpest dairy-fat selloffs of the fourth quarter. Butter closed Thursday, November 5, at $1.2725 per pound, down 0.75 cents on the day. Tracking the week through Thursday, the daily closes ran $1.3325 on Monday, $1.2975 on Tuesday, $1.2800 on Wednesday, and $1.2725 on Thursday, producing a current weekly average of $1.2956 versus a prior-week average of $1.3145. NDM Grade A moved in the opposite direction with notable conviction. On Thursday, November 5, NDM closed at $2.2125 per pound, gaining 2.50 cents on the day. The weekly progression ran $2.1250 Monday, $2.1600 Tuesday, $2.1875 Wednesday, and $2.2125 Thursday, for a current weekly average of $2.1713, up sharply from the prior-week average of $2.0720. CME spot NDM had rallied 1.75 cents in the preceding week to $2.1125, so the momentum entering this week was already positive, and the market extended gains meaningfully. In cheese, the barrel-block inversion that has persisted for several weeks continued without resolution. On Wednesday, November 4, cheese barrels closed unchanged at $1.7250 per pound while 40-pound blocks gained one cent to close at $1.5875 per pound. By Thursday, November 5, blocks had retreated to $1.5775, down $0.0100, while barrels remained at $1.7250 with no change. USDA Dairy Market News noted the ongoing focus on high-protein, premium whey concentrates has led some cheese manufacturers to push the cheesemaking process further than usual, a practice that tends to favor barrel formation over block output and helps explain the persistent inversion. Dry whey continued to firm, closing Thursday at $0.8600, up $0.0100 on the day. | Product | Mon Nov 2 | Tue Nov 3 | Wed Nov 4 | Thu Nov 5 | Weekly Avg | Prior Week Avg | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Butter ($/lb) | 1.3325 | 1.2975 | 1.2800 | 1.2725 | 1.2956 | 1.3145 | | NDM Grade A ($/lb) | 2.1250 | 2.1600 | 2.1875 | 2.2125 | 2.1713 | 2.0720 | | Cheddar Blocks ($/lb) | 1.6000 | 1.5775 | 1.5875 | 1.5775 | 1.5856 | -- | | Cheddar Barrels ($/lb) | 1.7250 | 1.7250 | 1.7250 | 1.7250 | 1.7250 | -- | | Dry Whey ($/lb) | 0.8400 | -- | -- | 0.8600 | -- | -- | ## 3. FMMO Advanced Prices for November 2026: Class I Base Jumps $1.39 The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service released the November 2026 FMMO Advanced Prices and Pricing Factors during the week, providing the formula inputs that govern Class I fluid milk pricing across all federal order marketing areas for the month. The Base Class I Price was set at $20.27 per hundredweight for November 2026. That figure increased $1.39 from the previous month. The Base Skim Milk Price for Class I was set at $16.03 per hundredweight, an increase of $1.91 from the prior month. The two-week NDPSR product price averages underpinning the November formula are: Butter at $1.3610 per pound, Nonfat Dry Milk at $1.9807 per pound, Cheese at $1.4098 per pound, and Dry Whey at $0.7228 per pound. These two-week trailing averages, weighted by sales volume, feed directly into Class III and Class IV price calculations. | Pricing Factor | November 2026 Value | |---|---| | Base Class I Price | $20.27/cwt | | Base Skim Milk Price for Class I | $16.03/cwt | | Class I ESL Adjustment | ($1.80)/cwt | | Advanced Class III Skim Milk Pricing Factor | $10.38/cwt | | Advanced Class IV Skim Milk Pricing Factor | $16.03/cwt | | Advanced Butterfat Pricing Factor | $1.3730/lb | | Class II Skim Milk Price | $16.73/cwt | | Class II Nonfat Solids Price | $1.7989/lb | November Class III futures settled at $17.65 per cwt and November Class IV closed at $20.78 per cwt as of the most recent futures session, suggesting the market anticipates Class III and Class IV actuals to come in broadly in that vicinity once October component data is finalized. ## 4. USDA NDPSR: Cheddar Blocks Lead Gains, Dry Whey the Only Decliner The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service reported mixed weekly price movements across major dairy products in its National Dairy Products Sales Report dated November 4, 2026. The report covers prices received for the week ending October 31, 2026, tracking butter, cheddar cheese, dry whey, and nonfat dry milk. Cheddar blocks rose 11.0 cents to $1.53 per pound, butter gained 0.8 cents to $1.37 per pound, and nonfat dry milk climbed 6.7 cents to $2.12 per pound, while dry whey was the lone decliner, falling 0.5 cents to 73.3 cents per pound. The NDPSR reflects negotiated wholesale market transactions and serves as the basis for FMMO formula pricing. The sharp cheddar-block gain in the NDPSR is consistent with spot-market strength seen in late October, before the early-November CME weakness set in. The retail feature environment was also active during the survey period. The USDA weekly dairy feature report for the period ending November 5, 2026 showed mixed cheese activity, a second consecutive week of conventional eggnog holiday ads, and a 21 percent rise in conventional milk ads. USDA's Dairy Market News branch surveys nearly 130 retailers comprising over 22,000 individual stores with online weekly advertised features. The eggnog ad emergence confirms holiday merchandising has begun in earnest across major grocery chains. ## 5. November WASDE Pending: October Report Showed Cuts to Production and Exports The November WASDE is scheduled for release at noon Eastern Time on Monday, November 10, 2026, meaning this edition closes before the report hits. The next WASDE and Crop Production reports come out Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at noon ET. Markets will be closely watching for any revisions to the full-year 2026 milk production forecast. The October 9 WASDE, which stands as the last official word until November 10, delivered a nuanced dairy picture. The milk production forecast was decreased slightly for both 2026 and 2027, with cow inventories lowered for 2026 and output per cow lowered for both years, based on the latest Milk Production report. For both 2026 and 2027, commercial exports were lowered on a fat basis due to lower-than-expected shipments of butter and cheese. The NDM and whey price forecasts were raised to reflect recent prices and strong demand for protein products. For both 2026 and 2027, the Class III price forecast was lowered as higher whey prices only partially offset lower cheese prices, and the Class IV price forecast was raised as higher NDM prices more than fully offset lower butter prices. For 2026, the all-milk price forecast was left unchanged at $19.90 per cwt. | WASDE Item (Oct 9 Release) | 2026 Direction | Key Driver | |---|---|---| | Milk production | Lowered | Lower cow numbers, lower output/cow | | Fat-basis exports | Lowered | Below-expected butter and cheese shipments | | NDM/whey price forecasts | Raised | Strong protein demand | | Class III price forecast | Lowered | Cheese weakness exceeds whey gains | | Class IV price forecast | Raised | NDM strength > butter weakness | | All-milk price | Unchanged | $19.90/cwt for 2026 | The industry enters November 10 with a bullish NDM signal from the CME, a bearish butter trajectory, and a cheese market where the block-barrel inversion complicates straightforward Class III interpretation. ## 6. HPAI H5N1: Indiana Confirmed as 22nd State, Washington Cluster Hits 40 Herds The most significant animal health development of the week arrived back-to-back. On November 2, 2026, USDA APHIS NVSL confirmed via PCR detection of HPAI H5N1 genotype B3.13 in a dairy cattle herd in Indiana, marking the first reported case of HPAI in cattle in that state. Dairy cattle in a total of 21 states had been infected since the start of the outbreak in March 2024, and APHIS had been seeing cases in previously unaffected states throughout the year. Following the Indiana detection, the state's status under USDA's National Milk Testing Strategy (NMTS) changed to Affected, triggering revised premovement testing requirements for lactating dairy cattle leaving Indiana. Lactating dairy cattle originating from NMTS Unaffected states may move interstate without influenza A testing, but cattle originating from Affected or Provisionally Unaffected states must meet federal premovement testing requirements. Meanwhile, in Washington, a separate cluster has been expanding rapidly. As of November 2, six more dairy herds were reported as infected with H5N1 in Washington state, bringing to 40 the number identified since October 8, with all but one reported from Yakima County. USDA APHIS announced the first two detections in Washington dairy herds on October 8, 2026, and NVSL subsequently completed whole genome sequencing, confirming the virus is H5N1 genotype B3.13. Surveillance is ongoing around the initial premises and throughout Washington. The detection does not pose a risk to consumer health or the safety of the commercial milk supply, and the FDA remains confident that pasteurization effectively inactivates the HPAI virus. | State | First Detection | Genotype | Herds Affected | NMTS Status | |---|---|---|---|---| | Indiana | Nov 2, 2026 | B3.13 | 1 (confirmed) | Now Affected | | Washington | Oct 8, 2026 | B3.13 | 40 (as of Nov 2) | Affected | | All other states | Since Mar 2024 | B3.13 (primarily) | Multiple | Various | ## 7. GDT Event 415: Third Straight Index Gain, But a Protein-Fat Split Emerges The overall dairy price index increased 3 percent at the Global Dairy Trade auction held November 3, 2026, with the weighted average price reaching $4,166 per metric ton. That was the third straight increase in the GDT price index, with 166 participating bidders and 111 winning bidders. The headline number masked a sharp product-category divergence. Cheddar recorded the strongest increase, rising 8.6 percent to $3,970 per metric ton, while whole milk powder gained 5.9 percent to reach $3,971 per metric ton and mozzarella increased 5.8 percent to $4,104 per metric ton. Skim milk powder strengthened, gaining 3.1 percent and reaching its highest level on the GDT platform since June 2022. Fats moved decisively in the other direction. Butter fell 4.7 percent and anhydrous milk fat slipped 3.2 percent at GDT Event 415. The whole milk powder price was $211 per ton above the level at the October 21 event, while skim milk powder was $134 higher, but butter was $218 lower and anhydrous milk fat was $182 lower. Increased purchasing activity from Asian markets played an important role in the auction outcome. NZX dairy insights analyst Rosalind Crickett noted that the auction results significantly exceeded expectations in both the physical dairy market and futures trading. The next Global Dairy Trade auction is scheduled for November 17, 2026. | GDT Event 415 Product | Avg Winning Price | Change vs. Prior Event | |---|---|---| | Cheddar | $3,970/MT ($1.80/lb) | +8.6% | | Mozzarella | $4,104/MT ($1.86/lb) | +5.8% | | Whole Milk Powder | $3,971/MT | +5.9% | | Skim Milk Powder | $4,109/MT | +3.1% | | Butter | $4,503/MT | -4.7% | | Anhydrous Milk Fat | $5,306/MT | -3.2% | | Buttermilk Powder | $4,312/MT | -4.4% | | Overall Index | $4,166/MT (avg) | +3.0% | ## 8. CME Futures: Class III Drops to $17.02, Class IV Retreats to $20.40 by Midweek CME dairy futures followed spot weakness lower through the week before data gaps on Thursday and Friday (consistent with the November 6 weekly summary available as of print). November Class III futures settled at $18.00 per cwt Monday, fell to $17.83 Tuesday, and dropped further to $17.02 Wednesday, while November Class IV futures were $20.94 Monday, $21.02 Tuesday, and $20.40 Wednesday. The midweek slide in Class III futures was largely a function of the butter-side drag even though cheese held relatively firm at the spot level. November cheese futures were $1.6860 per pound Monday, $1.6750 Tuesday, and $1.5980 Wednesday, while November dry whey futures were $0.7650, $0.7625, and $0.7700 respectively. November NDM futures were $2.0700 Monday, $2.0850 Tuesday, and $2.0400 Wednesday, and November butter futures settled at $1.3625, $1.3625, and $1.3250. After much back and forth during the prior week, the milk markets finished mixed, with nearby prices losing ground for both Class III and Class IV while deferred futures climbed. The divergence between nearby and deferred reflects ongoing uncertainty around first-quarter 2027 demand and feed cost trajectories. | Futures (Nov Contract) | Mon Nov 2 | Tue Nov 3 | Wed Nov 4 | |---|---|---|---| | Class III ($/cwt) | 18.00 | 17.83 | 17.02 | | Class IV ($/cwt) | 20.94 | 21.02 | 20.40 | | Cheese ($/lb) | 1.6860 | 1.6750 | 1.5980 | | Butter ($/lb) | 1.3625 | 1.3625 | 1.3250 | | NDM ($/lb) | 2.0700 | 2.0850 | 2.0400 | | Dry Whey ($/lb) | 0.7650 | 0.7625 | 0.7700 | ## 9. October Class Prices Final: Class III at $15.16, Class IV at $20.54 The October Class III milk price finalized at $15.16 per cwt, while the October Class IV price finalized at $20.54 per cwt. These actuals, now fully determined from NDPSR data for the October survey weeks, illustrate the persistent spread between protein-based and fat-based returns. Dairy producers in the cheese states will cash a relatively modest October milk check, but beginning in November everyone should once again be able to pay their bills with a meaningful assist from beef revenue. The October Class III at $15.16 is notably below the year's earlier levels and below the September Class III final of $16.04. September Class III had finalized at $16.04 per cwt and September Class IV at $18.94 per cwt. The improvement in November formula inputs, with the Base Class I Price up $1.39 from October, points to a materially better November milk check for fluid-oriented processors and fluid-blend farms. The gap between October and November Class I baselines of roughly $1.39 per cwt is among the larger single-month moves seen this year and will provide some recovery to producers whose operations skew toward Class I uses. | Class | October Final | September Final | November (Advanced Basis) | |---|---|---|---| | Class I Base | -- | -- | $20.27/cwt | | Class II Skim Milk | -- | -- | $16.73/cwt | | Class III | $15.16/cwt | $16.04/cwt | Futures ~$17.02-$18.00 | | Class IV | $20.54/cwt | $18.94/cwt | Futures ~$20.40-$21.02 | ## 10. USDA September Livestock and Dairy Outlook: 2026 Milk Production at 237.2 Billion Pounds The USDA Economic Research Service's September 2026 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, the most recent ERS long-form analysis available entering this week, laid out the production baseline the November WASDE will update. Milk production forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were raised to 237.2 billion pounds and 238.6 billion pounds, respectively, due to higher expected cow numbers and improved milk yields, with domestic milk disappearance also forecast higher in both years. The dairy cow inventory for 2026 was projected at 9.680 million head, with milk production per cow projected at 24,500 pounds, resulting in total milk production forecast at 237.2 billion pounds. Against that production backdrop, dairy exports for 2026 were revised lower on a skim-solids basis, to 49.1 billion pounds. The ERS all-milk price forecast at the time of that September report was $19.90 per cwt for 2026, consistent with the October WASDE. The question entering the November 10 WASDE is whether the recent surge in NDM and whey will push protein-linked forecasts higher while butter weakness continues to suppress fat-linked estimates. ## 11. Retail Dairy Feature Activity: Holiday Eggnog Ads Begin, Milk Promotions Surge 21 Percent The USDA AMS weekly grocery store dairy feature activity report, dated October 30, 2026 and covering the survey window from October 24 to November 5, 2026, draws on advertised prices gathered through circulars and digital promotions at major grocery retailers. In cheese, conventional 6-8-ounce block cheese remained the most advertised conventional variety, while conventional sliced 6-8-ounce cheese ads fell 3 percent and organic sliced ads dropped 63 percent. The decline in organic sliced ad activity likely reflects promotional calendar timing rather than a structural demand shift. The half-gallon average advertised milk price stood at $6.69, compared with a prior-year average of $7.69 for the same period, a $1.00 year-over-year decline that reflects both lower Class I formula prices earlier in the year and competitive promotional pricing by major retailers entering the holiday season. The eggnog category seeing its second consecutive week of conventional ads is an early indicator that the holiday dairy push is gaining velocity. ## 12. EEX and NZX Dairy Futures Signal Global Price Firmness in Protein European and New Zealand futures markets provided useful global context during the week. On the EEX European platform for the November 2026 contract, SMP settled at 3,783 euros per metric ton, butter at 3,875 euros per metric ton, and whey at 1,635 euros per metric ton as of November 4. On NZX New Zealand futures for November 2026, whole milk powder settled at $3,985 per metric ton in U.S. dollar terms, SMP at $4,085 per metric ton, anhydrous milk fat at $5,340 per metric ton, and butter at $4,530 per metric ton as of November 5. The NZX SMP level at $4,085 per metric ton is consistent with the GDT Event 415 auction result of approximately $4,109 per metric ton for SMP, confirming the two platforms are aligned on powder values. The EEX butter at 3,875 euros per metric ton, converted at the prevailing exchange rate, reflects a European market that is similarly under pressure from the global fat surplus that is weighing on CME butter prices. The divergence between European and U.S. butter levels remains a key variable for export competitiveness, as American butter should have no trouble finding global buyers, and American butter is currently the cheapest in the world by a significant margin. --- ## Quick Hits - H5N1 genotype B3.13 is the specific lineage that has circulated in the U.S. dairy cattle outbreak since cases were first confirmed on a dairy premises in March 2024, distinguishing it from other H5N1 genotypes affecting wild birds and commercial poultry. - The quart-size advertised milk price averaged $4.00 during the November 5 survey period, nearly flat with the prior-year average of $4.01, suggesting quart-size pricing has stabilized even as half-gallon promotions deepened. - The next GDT auction is scheduled for Tuesday, November 17, 2026, with the previous event selling 39,806 tonnes at a weighted average of $4,166 per metric ton. - Cheese production is growing faster than consumption, requiring prices to stay competitive enough to attract international buyers away from other markets, a dynamic that works better around $1.60 than it did at $1.80. - Under the updated APHIS interstate movement guidance effective earlier this year, lactating dairy cattle moving from states with Unaffected State Status under the NMTS are no longer required to be tested for HPAI H5N1 prior to movement, but Indiana's new Affected designation changes the calculus for herds originating there. - USDA offers financial assistance to help dairy producers enhance biosecurity and offset costs and losses from HPAI H5N1, and affected Indiana and Washington producers are encouraged to contact APHIS for program eligibility. - The GDT 3.0 percent index gain in Event 415 represented the strongest auction-to-auction increase since February 2026. --- ## What to Watch Next Week 1. **November WASDE (November 10, noon ET):** This is the single biggest market event of the coming week. Revisions to 2026 milk production, cow inventory, and product price forecasts will reset the annual supply-demand narrative. Watch for whether USDA moves the all-milk price above or below the current $19.90 per cwt baseline. 2. **CME butter recovery test:** With spot butter at $1.2725 entering Friday, the market will probe whether that level represents a floor or the beginning of a deeper correction. Any uptick in cream tightness ahead of holiday churning could stabilize values. 3. **Washington H5N1 cluster trajectory:** The 40-herd Yakima County cluster has been expanding since October 8. Epidemiological data from NVSL and APHIS will determine whether the cluster is peaking or still spreading, with implications for interstate movement rules across the Pacific Northwest. 4. **NDM export confirmation:** NDM at $2.2125 per pound on the CME is an extraordinary value level. Weekly USDA Export Sales data (released Thursdays) will show whether international buyers are capitalizing on U.S. powder availability at competitive prices versus the GDT SMP benchmark around $4,109 per metric ton. 5. **GDT Event 416 (November 17):** Whether the third straight GDT index gain extends to a fourth will be a key signal for global protein demand, particularly from Asian importers, heading into year-end. 6. **Indiana NMTS Affected-state monitoring:** With Indiana freshly designated Affected, watch for APHIS epidemiological reports on the initial premises and any secondary detections within the state's dairy corridor. 7. **Dry whey futures and spot convergence:** Dry whey closed at $0.8600 on the spot market Thursday while November futures were around $0.7700, a gap worth monitoring as Class III formula implications depend on where whey settles in the monthly NDPSR average. --- *The Therio Dairy Newsdesk is published weekly, delivering data-driven market analysis to dairy producers, cooperatives, processors, and industry professionals across the United States. For subscription inquiries, corrections, or story tips, contact the Therio editorial team. All prices and figures cited are sourced from USDA AMS, CME Group, Global Dairy Trade, and APHIS at time of publication and are subject to revision by the issuing agencies.*