Market Advisory & Price Risk Management

Understanding Dairy Price Risk

Dairy farming operates in a volatile commodity market where milk prices can swing 30-50% within a year. Feed costs, which represent 50-60% of production costs, are equally unpredictable. This price volatility creates significant financial risk that can threaten even well-managed operations during market downturns.

Why Risk Management Matters

Many profitable dairies have failed not because of poor management but because they were unprotected during extended periods of low margins. Effective risk management doesn't guarantee profits, but it can prevent catastrophic losses and provide cash flow stability for better business planning.

Risk Management Tools

• Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC): Federal program protecting margins between milk prices and feed costs
• Livestock Gross Margin (LGM-Dairy): Insurance covering margin between milk revenue and feed costs
• Forward contracting: Locking in prices with your milk buyer for future periods
• Futures and options: CME-traded contracts for Class III/IV milk and feed commodities
• Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP): Insurance protecting against revenue declines

Market Advisory Services

What Advisors Do

Market advisory services monitor dairy and feed markets, provide price forecasts, recommend hedging actions, and help execute risk management strategies. Good advisors explain the "why" behind recommendations and tailor strategies to your specific operation.

Types of Advisory Services

• Full-service advisors: Ongoing market monitoring, recommendations, and trade execution
• Consulting services: Periodic analysis and strategy development
• Cooperative programs: Risk management pools through your milk cooperative
• Brokerage with advice: Commodity brokers who provide market guidance

Do You Need Advisory Services?

Consider market advisory services if:

• Your operation is large enough that price swings significantly impact finances
• You lack time or expertise to monitor markets closely
• You've experienced significant losses during market downturns
• You have debt service that requires predictable cash flow
• You want to be proactive rather than reactive on pricing

Cost Considerations

Advisory services typically cost $0.05-0.15 per cwt of milk marketed annually, or $500-2,500 per month depending on service level. DMC premiums are government-subsidized. LGM-Dairy and DRP premiums vary with coverage levels and market conditions. Commission on futures trades is typically $30-50 per contract round-turn.