Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of January 31 - February 6, 2026

# Dairy Industry News Roundup: Week of January 31 - February 6, 2026 Welcome to your weekly dairy industry briefing! This week brought a landmark coalition launch to protect North American trade, a sharp drop in farmer sentiment, and continued momentum in global dairy markets. Meanwhile, a 25-year Swedish study made headlines with surprising findings about full-fat cheese and brain health. Here are the top stories from January 31 through February 6. **World Ag Expo starts this Tuesday!** Therio co-founders Logan and Greg will be in Tulare, CA from February 9-11. They'll be posting daily updates from the show floor on our [World Ag Expo Live Updates page](/news/world-ag-expo-2026-live-updates). Want to meet up? Email us at [info@therio.ai](mailto:info@therio.ai) to schedule a meeting. --- ## From the Therio Team This Week ## 1. 25-Year Swedish Study Links Full-Fat Cheese to Lower Dementia Risk A landmark 25-year study tracking nearly 28,000 Swedish adults found that higher consumption of full-fat cheese and cream is associated with a reduced risk of dementia. The findings, published in *Neurology*, challenge decades of low-fat dietary guidance. **Key findings from the Lund University study:** - **Full-fat cheese** (50+ grams per day): 13-17% lower Alzheimer's risk among those without genetic risk factors - **Full-fat cream** (20+ grams per day): 16-24% lower overall dementia risk - **No meaningful links** were found for low-fat cheese, low-fat cream, or milk of any fat content - The protective association for cheese was **not observed** in participants carrying the APOE e4 genetic risk factor Experts caution this is an observational study showing association, not causation. People who ate more full-fat cheese were also more educated, less overweight, and had lower rates of heart disease. Still, the data add to a growing body of research questioning the decades-old push toward low-fat dairy. For the dairy industry, these findings align with broader market trends showing renewed consumer interest in full-fat options, and they come at a strategic time as the updated 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines have already boosted recommended protein intake. *Read more:* [25-Year Swedish Study Links Full-Fat Cheese to Lower Dementia Risk](/news/25-year-swedish-study-links-full-fat-cheese-lower-dementia-risk) --- ## Other Industry News ## 2. 40+ Agricultural Groups Launch Coalition for USMCA Renewal In the biggest trade policy development of the week, more than 40 farm and agricultural groups launched the **Agricultural Coalition for USMCA** on February 5, calling for renewal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement before its mandatory review deadline on July 1, 2026. The coalition is co-led by the **National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF)** and the **U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC)**, underscoring dairy's central role in North American trade. **Why this matters for dairy:** - **$3.6 billion** in dairy products were exported to Canada and Mexico in 2024, representing 44% of total U.S. dairy export value - If renewed, the agreement extends for **16 years** (to 2042) - If no agreement is reached, annual consultations begin, with potential expiration in 2036 **Dairy-specific concerns on the table:** - Canada's manipulation of dairy tariff-rate quota administration - Circumvention of USMCA dairy protein export disciplines that undercut U.S. products - Protecting generic cheese names like "feta" from EU pressure in Mexican trade negotiations The coalition plans to release an economic impact report at a press conference on **February 10** and is running an advocacy campaign in Washington, D.C. *Read more:* [Agricultural Coalition for USMCA](https://agforusmca.com/) --- ## 3. Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply to Start 2026 The Purdue University/CME Group **Ag Economy Barometer** fell 23 points in January, from 136 to 113, marking one of the sharpest monthly declines in recent memory. The survey, conducted January 12-16, reveals growing pessimism across U.S. agriculture. **By the numbers:** | Metric | January 2026 | December 2025 | Change | |--------|-------------|---------------|--------| | Ag Economy Barometer | 113 | 136 | -23 | | Current Conditions Index | 109 | 128 | -19 | | Future Expectations Index | 115 | 140 | -25 | | Farm Capital Investment Index | 47 | 58 | -11 | **Key findings:** - **50% of producers** reported their operations were worse off than a year ago - **59% expect bad financial times** in the next 12 months (up from 47% in December) - **Only 4%** plan to increase farm machinery purchases - **21%** expect larger operating loans in 2026 - **31%** cite unpaid carryover debt as the reason for larger loans (up from 5% in 2023) The sharp decline in the Capital Investment Index to 47 is particularly notable. When farmers stop investing, it signals deep concern about near-term profitability. For dairy producers already facing multi-year low milk prices, this sentiment data confirms what many have been feeling on the ground. *Read more:* [Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer](https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/ageconomybarometer/) --- ## 4. Global Dairy Trade Prices Surge 6.7% in February Auction The February 4 Global Dairy Trade auction delivered another strong rally, with the GDT Price Index jumping **6.7%** to a weighted average price of **$3,830 per metric ton**. All product categories posted gains. **February 4 auction results:** | Product | Average Price (USD/MT) | Change | |---------|----------------------|--------| | Skim Milk Powder | $2,874 | +10.6% | | Mozzarella | $3,694 | +10.6% | | Butter | $5,773 | +8.8% | | Buttermilk Powder | $3,147 | +6.4% | | Whole Milk Powder | $3,614 | +5.3% | | Anhydrous Milk Fat | $6,524 | +5.0% | The rally marks the **third consecutive gain** for 2026, following a 6.3% jump on January 6 and a 1.5% increase on January 20. Strong buyer demand from China, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East is driving prices higher, while reduced U.S. powder production (down approximately 10% year-over-year) is tightening supply. For U.S. dairy exporters, these rising global prices are a bright spot in an otherwise challenging market. Lower domestic prices have made American dairy products highly competitive internationally, with U.S. cheddar currently 36-42% cheaper than New Zealand and EU cheese. *Read more:* [Global Dairy Trade Results](https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/) --- ## 5. U.S. Dairy Herd Hovers Near 30-Year High The U.S. milking herd has reached approximately **8.96 million cows** across 24 major dairy states, the highest level since 1993. The herd grew by 75,000 head year-over-year, and 2025 milk production hit 231.4 billion pounds, with USDA forecasting 234.3 billion pounds for 2026. **The math behind the expansion:** - **Per-cow productivity** increased 2.1%, accounting for about half of new milk output - **Beef-on-dairy economics** continue propping up herd numbers, with calf premiums contributing $4-5 per hundredweight to farm income - **Replacement heifer inventories** remain at their lowest level since 1978 **The price impact is severe:** | Metric | January 2025 | January 2026 | Change | |--------|-------------|-------------|--------| | Butterfat | $2.95/lb | $1.45/lb | -$1.50 | | All-Milk Price Forecast | $21.15/cwt | $18.25/cwt | -$2.90 | | Class IV Price | $18.39/cwt | $13.55/cwt | -$4.84 | The structural challenge remains: $11 billion in new processing capacity is hungry for milk volume, and beef-on-dairy revenue is keeping cows in the herd that might otherwise be culled. Analysts expect a correction by mid-2026, but the first quarter will be painful for operations with tight margins. *Read more:* [Farm Progress](https://www.farmprogress.com/dairy-cattle/u-s-dairy-herd-hovers-near-30-year-high) --- ## 6. DMC Enrollment Deadline: Three Weeks Away **Dairy Margin Coverage enrollment for 2026 closes February 26.** With margins forecast to fall below payment triggers for multiple months in early 2026, enrollment could generate meaningful payments for participating operations. **January 2026 DMC margin forecast: $7.67 per hundredweight**, well below the $9.50 trigger for maximum coverage. February's margin is forecast at $8.78 per hundredweight. **Program reminders:** - **Tier 1 coverage** increased from 5 million to 6 million pounds for 2026 - All operations must establish **new production history** based on 2021, 2022, or 2023 marketings - **Six-year lock-in option** (2026-2031) available with a 25% premium discount - Coverage levels available from $4.00-$9.50 per hundredweight in $0.50 increments If you have not yet enrolled, contact your local FSA office. At current margin levels, the enhanced DMC program provides a critical safety net. *Read more:* [USDA FSA Dairy Margin Coverage](https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/dairy-margin-coverage-program/index) --- ## Market Snapshot: Week Ending February 6, 2026 | Indicator | Price/Value | Notes | |-----------|-------------|-------| | Class I Base Price (February) | $14.70/cwt | 68-month low (lowest since June 2020) | | Class IV Price (January) | $13.55/cwt | Lowest since February 2021 | | 2026 All-Milk Price Forecast | $18.25/cwt | Down from $21.15 in 2025 | | GDT Price Index (Feb 4) | +6.7% | Third consecutive increase | | Butter (GDT) | $5,773/MT | +8.8% | | Skim Milk Powder (GDT) | $2,874/MT | +10.6% | | U.S. Dairy Herd | ~8.96 million cows | 30-year high | | Ag Economy Barometer | 113 | Down 23 points from December | | DMC Enrollment Deadline | February 26, 2026 | 3 weeks remaining | --- ## Looking Ahead **This week:** - **February 10-12, 2026:** World Ag Expo in Tulare, California. **Therio co-founders Logan and Greg will be there from February 9-11.** They'll be posting daily updates on our [World Ag Expo Live Updates page](/news/world-ag-expo-2026-live-updates). Want to connect? Email us at [info@therio.ai](mailto:info@therio.ai) to schedule a meeting. - **February 10, 2026:** Agricultural Coalition for USMCA press conference and economic impact report release **Key dates ahead:** - **February 17, 2026:** Next Global Dairy Trade auction - **February 26, 2026:** Dairy Margin Coverage enrollment deadline - **July 1, 2026:** USMCA mandatory review deadline **Industry priorities:** - Enrolling in expanded DMC program before the February 26 deadline - Following USMCA coalition developments and trade policy implications - Managing through lowest milk prices in nearly six years - Monitoring global dairy trade momentum for export opportunities - Attending World Ag Expo and evaluating new dairy technology --- *Stay informed with our weekly dairy industry roundups. For questions or tips, reach out at [info@therio.ai](mailto:info@therio.ai).*